Illegal Immigrants: The problem comes down to the longer it is left the worse it gets.

Southern Africa has an immense problem with illegal immigrants from all over the region converging on the more affluent nations. The biggest problem is of the millions of Zimbabweans.

There are many parallels with the Mexico and America immigration crisis.

There are really only two options, getting the unstable neighbour to stabilise or put up a really good fence. The third option of allowing the illegal immigrants to flow in imports your neighbour’s full basket of problems, there is overwhelming evidence that this is overburdens social structures. Even if the neighbouring country fixes their problems, the majority of illegal immigrants will not want to go back as they have created a new life where they were and will have to start over, again, when the get back home. Those problems need dealing with at source.

These Zimbabweans have fled violence, corruption and economic instability. The ideal solution would be for them to have something stable to go home to. But as many are ensconced in other countries with jobs and utilising the social networks the problems of their home countries have been merely exported to where they now reside. Much like that of Mexico and America.

South Africa, some years back under Mbeki, had a very real chance to make a big difference to the region by dealing with the reality that it boils down to Mugabe and his henchmen being the problem. Having witnessed the incompetence, violence and outright corruption of the past 10 years culminating in a rigged election, who in their right mind could believe that this situation could really change with Mugabe still at the helm? A negotiated Unity Government was riddled with flaws and levered the opposition into accepting it. The GNU is bumping along, lessened violence, so the proponents are congratulating themselves.

The South African Government is now under new management, having enjoyed the use of Zimbabwean labour the honeymoon of the World Cup is over. South Africa is facing the realities of the horrendous recession and Xenophobia. One of the solutions, noted in today's BBC, is to ship the Zimbabweans back, all some 2million of them. This opens new jobs up for the local population and diffuses a very volatile xenophobic situation. Since Zimbabwe is nominally stable it makes good sense, to all but those being shipped back because they are viewed as a national and election threat in Zimbabwe by Mugabe and there is an election coming up. 2011 Zimbabwe election is going to get very nasty.

So having faced the issue of supporting them for nearly a decade they are returned. They are increasing the magnification of the problem in Zimbabwe since the Zimbabwean crisis has not been sorted out. This explodes and the effect will be a torrent of refugees into South Africa escalating things there in a volatile situation.